“The worst may be behind us.” So said US President Obama in August, ever the optimist. He was not alone, however. Joining him was a rather large chorus of investors who over the past few months cheered some of the economic data, driving the stock market up. Since I have a boat and am periodically in the habit of watching river and lake levels, especially in times of floods, I have been struck by the time-based relationship between rainfall, river levels, and lake levels. Rain falls first (or snow melts), and the inches of rain are counted in minutes or hours. Rivers surge days later, well after the cloudy weather has been replaced by sunshine. …

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