The next two years will show a major change in the Agile world: The predominant position of Scrum will suffer from both the inside and the outside. On the inside, the struggles within the community will weaken the thrust effect of the certification program. Right now, we already have two competing certification programs, and, at least in Europe, single trainers are trying to establish their private programs, too. This will lead to several dialects and maybe even more competing certification programs. Though competition generally helps progress a profession, I consider this a sign of increasing weakness for the Scrum Alliance.
The ongoing merger between Scrum and XP – now marketed as “Scrum development practices” – strengthens the capabilities of Scrum teams but may also decrease the attractiveness of Scrum to non-technical decision makers.
From the outside Scrum is being attacked by the Kanban movement. Kanban opens the door to areas which have not been well addressed by the traditional methods, such as maintenance and enterprise-level processes. It extends the agile toolbox significantly, making Kanban a real alternative to Scrum.
So my advice is to observe the Scrum world closely over the next years. Me-too certification programs will vanish as quickly as they spring up, but two or three seriously competitive programs may stay on the scene for longer. If you don’t want to go both ways, you may have to decide. For now, my best advice is go with the program whose coaches you trust.
Concerning Kanban, now is the time to learn more about its options and limitations and to consider first pilot projects. Kanban is in the early-adopter phase, but will moves on fast. Don’t miss opportunities that may be advantageous to your business.