I have four predictions that I’d like to share with you:
- The decline of Scrum will become obvious in 2011. The shine started to come off Scrum in 2009 when teams started to publicly report that they had run into trouble applying it effectively and this snowballed in 2010. The squabbling between the Scrum thought leaders over their various certification schemes exacerbated the problem in 2010 and there seems to be no end in sight. My recent 2010 Scrum Certification survey found that only 27% of Certified Scrum Masters (CSMs) were willing to admit publicly that they were CSMs and another 37% would do so seldomly, an indication of the Agile community’s growing embarrassment surrounding “Scrum certification”. I suspect that Scrum will continue to decline in popularity in 2011 and that the vast majority of people claiming to be doing Scrum today will be unwilling to even admit this by 2013.
- The upsurge in discussion about Lean will continue. There was a lot of discussion around Lean in 2010 and even some experimentation with it, and this trend will continue to gain steam in 2011. My guess is that attempted adoption of Lean will likely peak in three years at about 35% of IT development teams, but that the successful adoption rate of Lean will likely be about 15-20% around 2015. The move to Lean strategies such as Kanban will also contribute to the Scrum decline.
- Collaborative lifecycle management (CLM) will continue to grow. This trend started a few years ago with application lifecycle management (ALM) and evolved into CLM in 2010. As the complexity of software/system delivery increases, organizations are coming to recognize the need for integrated and instrumented tooling which enables development professionals to collaborate effectively and allows management to govern in a lean and efficient manner. Spend a few minutes poking around www.jazz.net to see where agile development tools are going.
- The upsurge of Agile techniques within the data community will continue. The data community is finally starting to put their toes in the Agile water, almost ten years behind the development community (we saw almost an identical adoption pattern with the object paradigm). 2011 will see a couple of new books published, an increase in Agile workshops for data professionals, and an increase in participation in only Agile database forums. This is a very good trend that was far too long in coming.
Business & Enterprise Architecture and Agile Product & Project Management Practices. He is the thought leader behind Disciplined Agile Delivery (DAD), Agile Model Driven Development (AMDD), the Agile Data (AD) method, and the Enterprise Unified Process (EUP).