Colleague Stephen Andriole preempted me with his excellent 2012 prediction Valuation Models Will Overweight the Importance of Cloud Delivery. I could not agree more with his over-arching message:
Wall Street will dramatically modify their valuation models of software and technology services companies to overweight the importance of cloud delivery.
Human nature being what it is, I expect we will be witnessing a ton of “washing” in 2012 and beyond. In particular:
- Cloud washing
- SaaS washing
- Multit-tenant washing
Your investment style is, of course, your own private business. For example, you might be very successful using The Greater Fool Theory.
However, if you are into Value Investing, I would allow myself a word of caution. For all three – Cloud, SaaS, Multi-tenant – it is a matter of the balance between the pros and cons in the particular context. As colleague Annie Shum would way: “Context over Content.”
Drawing upon what I and other Cutter consultants will witness next year, coming December 2012 I will do my level best to predict the 2013 ratio of The Greater Fool Investing to Value Investing insofar as Cloud, SaaS and Multi-tenant are concerned…