Predictions are always difficult in interesting times, because tomorrow’s concepts depend upon activity which has not yet occurred. We expected flying cars; we are getting autonomous cars. In the 1950s, the computer revolution, robotics, GPS, and today’s traffic patterns would have been difficult to envision. Today, we are seeing rapid evolution across Information and Communications Technology, affecting every component and every meme. But we can see the direction that some areas of recent concentration are likely to take.
Concepts of Agility will continue to evolve, moving beyond specific processes such as Scrum toward more comprehensive programs capable of incorporating a wider variety of projects, under more conditions and supporting greater integration with governance. This can be seen in the growing devops movement, which brings together development and operations in a vision of agility, as well as in the migration of principles and practices from Agile Development into other areas, such as Risk Management and Resilience. So, 2013, is likely to see a higher profile for DevOps, and development of new concepts that integrate Agility, Operations, and Governance.
Next year is also likely to see an increasing emphasis upon multi-device usage over the current focus on mobility. Mobility is useful, but will become an expected attribute of all devices, and new ways will be found to use the growing array of devices together. This will inevitably involve greater use of the Cloud, and we will see a strengthening of the concept of Personal Cloud (a Cloud linking all personal devices and permitting data and app sharing) as a result. Expect the Personal Cloud to emerge as an important concept in 2013, and to become commonplace by 2014.
Resilience will become increasingly important, and will unify risk management, business continuity, and agile management practices. It will be increasingly supported by software as well as in management frameworks, and will come of age in 2013.
“Big Data” will be superseded by “Complex Analytics” as the velocity component — real time analysis — becomes more critical, and the need to integrate a variety of different analytic processes becomes more acute. Increasing emphasis will be placed on the wide variety of analytics choices and their potential outcomes. This will happen gradually over the next three years.
[Editor’s Note: This post is part of the annual “Cutter Predicts …” series.]