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I could be wrong, but here are my predictions for the upcoming year. I believe that these observations will become more widely apparent. Prediction 1: Established firms will continue to feel the pressure for changing how they lead and manage. The influx of ‘net geners’ into the workplace will increasingly challenge traditional leadership and management styles. Established companies with previously successful top-town and hierarchical structures will re-think their management style in order to attract and retain innovative, younger workers. Prediction 2: In 2011, it will become more evident that the fastest growing companies over the next several years will be those that reflect the values of net geners (e.g., innovation, particularly in systems for social justice and …

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Organizing for Demand Management: Egoless Requirements

Too often IT projects are initiated on the basis of the “who shouts loudest” syndrome, dominated by the biggest egos in the business management arena. Another form of this malaise arises when internal politics, with business unit managers jockeying for position, sidelines the needs of the organization as a whole. If demand management is to be applied effectively to help align IT with business needs, then a certain objectivity must be achieved. Older readers may recall the idea of egoless programming advocated by Gerald Weinberg nearly 40 years ago [1]. Simply put, the concept of egoless programming advocates that a programmer should review the code of another programmer in an objective way such that personal …

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The year of 2010 was in many ways a negative surprise against the expectations. The aggravation of the economic crisis in some of the more developed economies of the world brought disappointment to companies and individuals who expected recovery, and with it, opportunities for exploring emerging technology. Despite the delayed recovery scenario, the Year 2010 nevertheless confirmed some anticipated trends in technology, specifically in Internet-based mobility, using laptops and cell phone-based small devices. In 2010, it was demonstrated that barriers to work collaboration across the globe are practically confined down to time-fuses – and even this constraint can in some cases be explored as an opportunity. With faster high-speed Internet available worldwide, and with cell …

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Starting in 2011, a new type of Cloud is rising in the distance. This cloud isn’t about enterprise class computing or the data center: it’s about information; information about you. Today, every individual has information about him/herself — relationships, digital devices under our control, etc. — spewed across the Internet. Often this information is automatically generated; it’s a form of digital exhaust trailing us as a by-product of how we interact with the Internet. Today, we have little or no control about how this information is used. We are each subject to lopsided and confusing “terms and conditions” for every consumer service. The concept of privacy is continually re-interpreted by Internet-based service providers. The concept …

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Carbon trading will be based on the ability to calculate carbon accurately. This, in turn, will be based on development and implementation of standards (e.g. ISO 14001). The maturity of Carbon Emissions Management Software (CEMS) will play a major role in the next 3 to 4 years in enabling carbon trading. Carbon will become a significant “currency” in its own right! [Editor's Note: This post is part of the annual "Cutter Predicts ..." series, compiled at the Cutter Consortium website.]

 
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I foresee a major push, globally, for Business Analysis to be recognised as a profession. This is an absolutely vital trend that will continue to build due to shifts in the demographics of software development. As software development and maintenance becomes concentrated in some geographical areas and, as the Cloud and SaaS enable such software to be operated and maintained outside the business organization, there will be tremendous importance to formalizing the profession of Business Analysis. Currently, the term Business Analysis can imply anything from requirements modeling to systems analysis to business architecture. This vagueness will be replaced by a much clearer understanding of the business analyst role and related skill sets in business and …

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Demand management will come of age in 2011 as business demand for IT outstrips and races far beyond the available budget in ever stringent times. Organizations will look increasingly beyond managing the supply of IT resources, to getting a grip on the business demand for those resources. It will dawn that this is a lot more than purchasing the latest portfolio management tool. Expect the cultural balance to shift away from the obsession with IT supply, including SOA, cloud and agile, toward much more critical, more innovative and collaborative business analysis. Organizations will need to prepare and structure themselves in a way that allows balanced and objective decisions to be made on what really counts, …

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I predict that in the coming year, agile teams will realise that they need to have skilled business analysts as part of the team. The product owner is in no position to represent the business at large, nor is anyone whose main concern is hitting the sprint targets. Let’s get some business thinking and system thinking into the mix, and stop concentrating on the software alone. I also predict, it’s more of a hope really, that people will stop using the meaningless term “delivering customer value”. [Editor's Note: This post is part of the annual "Cutter Predicts ..." series, compiled at the Cutter Consortium website.]

 
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Starting in 2011, look to a gradual shift away from constraining or contrived architectures, based on outdated analogies with building architecture or the traditional business, application, data/information, technology architecture EA “stack”. Tomorrow’s IT architectures may be more like the analogy where a building is architected in Zero-G (gravity). In such an environment, would we really pour the foundation first, and then establish the support beams and framing to be pre-requisite, dependant, and therefore locked in, for the life of the system? IT architectures — especially application and information architectures based upon emerging Semantic Web-based technologies — are far less constrained, allowing for refactoring, growth, and evolution in a real-time manner. There is no lock-in to …

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The next two years will show a major change in the Agile world: The predominant position of Scrum will suffer from both the inside and the outside. On the inside, the struggles within the community will weaken the thrust effect of the certification program. Right now, we already have two competing certification programs, and, at least in Europe, single trainers are trying to establish their private programs, too. This will lead to several dialects and maybe even more competing certification programs. Though competition generally helps progress a profession, I consider this a sign of increasing weakness for the Scrum Alliance. The ongoing merger between Scrum and XP – now marketed as “Scrum development practices” – …

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