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Next time you look at an organization’s complicated collection of systems, and the interfaces between them, do a little archeology — and think of an old English hotel.

 
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I predict that in the USA, the tension between Democrat- and Republican-controlled Houses of  Congress will force compromise early and more will get done.  The emerging economy will strengthen as global competition forces corporate investment.  Companies that are overly conservative and hold on will find themselves at risk again. [Editor's Note: This post is part of the annual "Cutter Predicts ..." series, compiled at the Cutter Consortium website.]

Dec 232010
 
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Here are my predictions for 2011: The transformation of smart phones into virtual wallets will stimulate new targeted attacks on mobile users. Spending on cyber surveillance technologies by governments will increase dramatically with little corresponding increase in the safety or security of citizens. Consumers who purchase 3D televisions will not need to worry about where they left their glasses because there will be very little 3D content available. [Editor's Note: This post is part of the annual "Cutter Predicts ..." series, compiled at the Cutter Consortium website.]

Dec 222010
 
Trends for 2011 and Beyond

Every year the Cutter Trends Council attempts to come up with the biggest trends for the next 12 months. Unfortunately, this is an almost-impossible task, akin to forecasting the stock market for the next 6 or 12 months. Long range trends, on the other hand, are much easier to forecast. For example, there were a number of economists and brokers who forecast the recent recession (the one we’re still in) but hardly any were able to accurately forecast that it would occur in the early Fall of 2008. What is true of forecasting economic trends is also true of Business-IT trends. It has been clear for decades that the retirement of the “baby boomers” in …

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2010 saw the rapid growth of quantitatively-driven performance improvement among organizations serious about getting lean and seeing results.  Much of this can be attributed to newer techniques in agile practices such as Kanban for software, and related awareness resulting from these practices. Organizations getting serious about real, measurable improvement take being a learning organization to heart. They  have started to explore blended approaches where they may bring together more than one “named” approach, firmly internalize the salient themes from them and synthesize a custom method that meets their specific business needs.  Some of these organizations have also started to investigate and pursue use of CMMI as a framework for organizing and benchmarking their performance accomplishments. In …

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2011: The Year the C Level Gets the Business Value of Agile

There are two strands of interest to the CIO, the CTO, the CEO and the rest of the executive team: strategy and delivery. The fundamental premise of Agility to the C-level is quite straightforward: “Merge” the two, so that: Delivery can start before strategy is complete Delivery informs strategy through tight feedback loops The net effect is faster/earlier delivery of products and service that are well suited to satisfy the needs of target markets. The paramount need to deliver faster/earlier is, for all practical purposes, dictated by today’s markets becoming hyper-segmented. For example, my (or your) Twitter network today is an evolving market segment. My Twitter network in March 2011 could easily be a different …

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I see 2011 as the pivotal year in which top and middle management realize they play a crucial role in making Agile and Lean work. While systems thinking gains some more traction in looking at organizations as systems, for many it will remain too vague to be useful. We will see the first signs of simple and pragmatic Agile/Lean practices specifically developed for managers. [Editor's Note: This post is part of the annual "Cutter Predicts ..." series, compiled at the Cutter Consortium website.]

 
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The iPhone 4.0 and the Android phone have significantly raised the bar for government and commercial business application developers. The application developers for these two phones have hit the target dead on. A new standard of application design is now on the market for all to see: usable code that directly provides time savings and innovation while making work significantly more effective and efficient. They’ve already changed the way I shop is a couple of ways, such as: Scan, compare and shop. I can scan a store item on the shelf, while my phone finds the same item in stores within miles of me along with pricing comparisons. Got gas? I can find the price …

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  Leadership IT Organizations (ITOs) are focusing on implementation and integration of three key Value Accretion disciplines over the next 12 months. The continuing uncertainty of the economic climate over the next 12 to 18 months is moving Governors, County Executives and City Mayors and Managers to increasingly look for both short-term and long-term cost reductions in operations. Rather than focusing on downsizing and hoping to fill vacant positions next year, I believe savvy IT Leaders will move their IT organizations toward a “Business within the Business” applying three critical disciplines on an enterprise basis. These three Value Accretion disciplines include a clear focus on: Developing a Program/Portfolio Management Office Increasing Project Management Maturity, and …

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Security and the law have not caught up with technology and the outlaws. But most people seem to be ignoring the risks in favor of the opportunities and I don’t see that changing in 2011. A high profile incident is bound to happen, probably sooner rather than later. The headlines this year have been full of security issues facing the internet. First, there was the Zeus Trojan Horse which has stolen millions of dollars from small businesses and individuals. Zeus steals your credentials from your computer, and then uses them to make numerous small transfers from your bank account (under the $10,000 limit for reporting) until it has been emptied out. Since your computer was …

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