Posts Tagged '2011 predictions'

 
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Carbon trading will be based on the ability to calculate carbon accurately. This, in turn, will be based on development and implementation of standards (e.g. ISO 14001). The maturity of Carbon Emissions Management Software (CEMS) will play a major role in the next 3 to 4 years in enabling carbon trading. Carbon will become a significant “currency” in its own right! [Editor's Note: This post is part of the annual "Cutter Predicts ..." series, compiled at the Cutter Consortium website.]

 
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I foresee a major push, globally, for Business Analysis to be recognised as a profession. This is an absolutely vital trend that will continue to build due to shifts in the demographics of software development. As software development and maintenance becomes concentrated in some geographical areas and, as the Cloud and SaaS enable such software to be operated and maintained outside the business organization, there will be tremendous importance to formalizing the profession of Business Analysis. Currently, the term Business Analysis can imply anything from requirements modeling to systems analysis to business architecture. This vagueness will be replaced by a much clearer understanding of the business analyst role and related skill sets in business and …

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Demand management will come of age in 2011 as business demand for IT outstrips and races far beyond the available budget in ever stringent times. Organizations will look increasingly beyond managing the supply of IT resources, to getting a grip on the business demand for those resources. It will dawn that this is a lot more than purchasing the latest portfolio management tool. Expect the cultural balance to shift away from the obsession with IT supply, including SOA, cloud and agile, toward much more critical, more innovative and collaborative business analysis. Organizations will need to prepare and structure themselves in a way that allows balanced and objective decisions to be made on what really counts, …

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I predict that in the coming year, agile teams will realise that they need to have skilled business analysts as part of the team. The product owner is in no position to represent the business at large, nor is anyone whose main concern is hitting the sprint targets. Let’s get some business thinking and system thinking into the mix, and stop concentrating on the software alone. I also predict, it’s more of a hope really, that people will stop using the meaningless term “delivering customer value”. [Editor's Note: This post is part of the annual "Cutter Predicts ..." series, compiled at the Cutter Consortium website.]

 
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Starting in 2011, look to a gradual shift away from constraining or contrived architectures, based on outdated analogies with building architecture or the traditional business, application, data/information, technology architecture EA “stack”. Tomorrow’s IT architectures may be more like the analogy where a building is architected in Zero-G (gravity). In such an environment, would we really pour the foundation first, and then establish the support beams and framing to be pre-requisite, dependant, and therefore locked in, for the life of the system? IT architectures — especially application and information architectures based upon emerging Semantic Web-based technologies — are far less constrained, allowing for refactoring, growth, and evolution in a real-time manner. There is no lock-in to …

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The next two years will show a major change in the Agile world: The predominant position of Scrum will suffer from both the inside and the outside. On the inside, the struggles within the community will weaken the thrust effect of the certification program. Right now, we already have two competing certification programs, and, at least in Europe, single trainers are trying to establish their private programs, too. This will lead to several dialects and maybe even more competing certification programs. Though competition generally helps progress a profession, I consider this a sign of increasing weakness for the Scrum Alliance. The ongoing merger between Scrum and XP – now marketed as “Scrum development practices” – …

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Facebook will continue to be the 800-pound gorilla in the social networking space for the coming year. The challenge for Facebook will be to not shoot itself in the foot over privacy concerns. Trust is a big component in social networking (in real life as well as online), and Facebook is already on thin ice with many people over their ever-changing privacy policies. If those concerns spread or become more profound (or perhaps worse, attract the attention of government privacy regulators) Facebook risks losing growth momentum. That being said, location-based social networking sites like Foursquare and Gowalla will lose out to Facebook Places in the coming year as Places becomes the 800-pound gorilla in the …

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It was always inevitable. If we ever solved the business technology alignment problem, as we were told so many times over the decades, we’d reach optimization nirvana. Is this the end of IT? Yes. It’s 2015, and everyone’s a chief information officer, or, more accurately, everyone’s a chief business intelligence officer. While your infrastructure hums in the cloud, all eyes are on strategic technology and the businesses now directly responsible — and accountable — for business technology optimization. The enterprise CIO is gone. The historical responsibilities of the office of the CIO have been distributed to the COO/CAO and the lines of business. Operational technology — which supports all of your company’s basic computing and …

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The Linked Open Data (LOD) cloud has doubled in size approximately every year since 2007 and is now collection of more than 200 datasets that offer more than 25 billion interlinked facts, available across widely diverse domains such as government, scientific, medical, social media, geographic, and other data. All of this publicly accessible data now comprises an estimated 395 million links between around 25 billion RDF statements. Starting in 2011, increasingly interesting and useful Semantically Aware Applications (SAAs), in the form of mashups against this semantically-defined data, will begin to proliferate massively. Look for governments (exemplified by www.data.gov in the United States and www.data.gov.uk in England) — in the continued spirit of transparency and accountability …

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This year, rather than predicting what the future will bring, I’m making a wish. Here’s what I’d dearly love to see happen: Today’s major development environments address a wide variety of architectural styles. However, because they don’t address any specific style, developers face a considerable amount of software architecture and technology work in order to design and build to the required architectural style. 2011, however, will see the first development environment equipped to address one or more specific architectural styles. Thus, much of the software technology work required to address the “ilities” (scalability, flexibility, usability, configurability, and so forth) will be pre-packaged, making it hugely more productive for application developers. Such a tool will not …

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