Dec 232009

With the new year upon us, we asked Cutter’s Senior Consultants and Fellows for their business technology predictions. Their perspectives — as always — are quite thoughtful, thought-provoking, and varied. Projections cover the changing role of the CIO, what will happen in enterprise architecture, the increasing adoption of agile, the explosion of cloud computing, the impact of green initiatives, and more.

We’re posting all the predictions on the Cutter website as they come in. Here are some excerpts:

  • Israel Gat: I expect 2010 to be the first year of a prolonged golden age.
  • San Murugesan: In 2010 and beyond, we will see growing interest and major developments in cloud computing, green IT, and mobile systems and applications.
  • Steve Andriole: By 2015, operational technology requirements have merged with business requirements and vice versa.
  • Vince Kellen: Social network analytics will grow. Understanding how networks of people consume or deliver value is both a powerful and a simple concept.
  • Scott Ambler: 2010 will see agile at scale take off in a visible way.
  • Curt Hall: Adoption of on-demand/cloud-based BI and data warehousing will experience steady growth in 2010.
  • Mike Sisco: IT will be called on more to help reduce costs and improve company productivity.
  • Pierfranco Ferronato: The concept of a central, model-based repository will emerge.
  • E.M. Bennatan: We are nowhere near the end of this extraordinary surge in technological advancement. In fact … the pace will only increase.
  • Sanjiv Augustine: Agile engineering practices will gain traction as teams and organizations that have implemented Scrum work on increasing code quality.
  • Gil Broza: Agile adoption will increase considerably, while the certification of newcomers will drop sharply in price and scale.
  • James Robertson: If a piece of technology is to succeed, it has to be, above all, convenient.
  • Masa K. Maeda: Agile-lean will become the new mainstream approach to project management and software development.
  • Arun Majumdar: Auditing of security from multiple levels, human to electronic, will become a major new growth area, especially in cloud computing and trusted infrastructure protection.
  • Jens Coldewey: In the next five years I expect a radical change in both the attitude and the reputation of programmers.
  • Carl Pritchard: Windows 7 will encounter its first serious breaches in 2010, leading to the inevitable questions about its long-term viability.
  • Scott Stribrny: The U.S. software industry, in 2010, will have an eroding share of the global software market’s value because of lack of the right talent within the American workforce.
  • William Ulrich: Organizations will realize that relying on business processes as sole input into SOA is unrealistic.

We’ll keep updating this blog and the Cutter site as more predictions arrive. Do you agree with what these experts think will happen? Disagree? What do you predict?


  2 Responses to “Cutter Experts Predict Trends for 2010 and Beyond”

  1. avatar

    “Israel Gat: I expect 2010 to be the first year of a prolonged golden age”.

    Was that prediction somehow left over from 1999? Or even 1929? Since 1999 we have learned that clever financial instruments and the Web did not signal an abrupt discontinuity in human progress, nor “the end of history” (as Francis Fukuyama so unhappily put it). And since 1929 we have learned that nothing has changed in the sphere of economics and finance, except that almost everyone who experienced the Great Crash has died, leaving wet-behind-the-ears youngsters like Greenspan and Bernanke to lead us down the primrose path to ruin.

    On the other hand, if this prediction was meant as a troll – a gadfly opinion designed to stir up emotional argument – it is a tremendous success.

  2. A few reflections on Tom’s reply:

    1. Past v. Future: In Backing into the Future, Bernard Knox makes a fascinating observation:

    “The early Greek imagination envisaged the past and the present as in front of us – we can see them. The future, invisible, is behind us… Paradoxical though it may sound to the modern ear, this image of our journey through time may be truer to reality than the medieval and modern feeling that we face the future as we make way forward into it.”

    2. How dire was the situation? When the value of virtual financial instruments reaches the level of 7X world GDP (as it did in 2007), a discontinuity of biblical proportions in human progress is quite possible IMHO.

    3. What does it all mean? Perez commented that “The legitimacy of capitalism rests upon its capacity to turn individual quest for profit into collective benefits.” If you accept the premise, the issue is neither ‘The Man in the Dock’ nor ‘The Man on the Couch.’ Rather, major structural and policy issues need to be addressed. Some, I believe, have been addressed during 2009.


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